Effect of global financial crisis

Stock market and real estate
Most of the real estate developers are publicly listed companies and trade on stock exchanges. This is because real estate development is capital intensive business and developers need cash to develop properties which is then sold or rented to customers. The investors in the stock market provide these developers cash for their projects. Hence, if the market is going down, these companies would get affected as well.

A large number of financial institutions (Banks, Mutual Funds and Hedge Funds) buy or sell these companies’ securities on the exchange. If these FIs start heavily selling their investments for one reason or other, it will negatively affect companies’ stock price, which is an attractive currency for the firms in the bull market. Firms may sell (issue) these stocks in the market to raise capital to fund their expansion plan without the headache of interest payments that accompany debt. So any downward movement in the stock market might decrease the stock price of these firms and hence reduce their ability to raise sufficient capital.

Some macroeconomic factors such as inflation and recession also affect these companies and their stock prices. As we know inflation in India is around 11.5% which is quite high compared to last year’s figure of 3-4%. RBI and Banks had to increase interest rates to counter high inflation. For real estate companies higher interest rates environment is not suitable because customers avoid taking home loans (higher EMI) which decreases the demand for properties. A bad prospect of growth in the earnings of the firms gets reflected in their stock prices.

Are blockbuster deals over?
Indian real estate sector was darling of foreign investors until six months back. Did you ever hear about mega real estate deals that happened in Mumbai in 2008? If not here they are: London-based banking major Barclays Bank created history in May when it took space at Cee Jay House, a landmark office complex in Worli, for Rs. 725 a square foot (sq ft) per month. Yesteryear movie star Vinod Khanna and his wife set a reality record in Mumbai by buying an apartment in Malabar Hills for Rs. 30 crore after paying a mind boggling Rs. 1,20,000 per square foot. But those days are over now. The sub-prime crisis has taken its heavy toll on the sector.

As we know real estate is a capital intensive industry. Firms need to buy land, which is extremely expensive these days, raw materials such as cement and steel, and hire manpower for the construction activities. All of these require huge amount of money. Developers generally raise capital either by borrowing or issuing stocks. RBI has made extremely difficult for the firms to raise debt in domestic market and through external commercial borrowing (ECB). Hence, the best way for them was to go to stock market or private funding. Unfortunately, the global financial crisis has taken a heavy toll on not only the Indian stock market but also global financial market, which was the major source of funding for the last 3-4 years for developers. In less than a year Sensex has gone down from 21,000 to 10,000 levels. Most of the real estate stocks are down by over 70% w.r.t to their 52-weeks high. This is because of higher interest rates, global slowdown and heavy selling by financial institutions, seriously cutting down these companies expansion plans. They are stuck with their existing projects while investors have pulled out. Lehman had around $1.3Billion of investments in Indian real estate market. Several developers such as Unitech had planned to raise money through Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to fund their projects. Even REITs traded on Singaapore exchange are not funding any major projects in India. This caused DLF to postpone its plan of raising capital in Singapore. Now, after the bust of Lehman, firms may seek PEs help to raise capital. But, how many global funds would be interested to invest these days is the million dollar question!

Company Current Price (Rs.)* 52-weeks high(Rs.) % drop
DLF 304.65 1225 75
UNITECH 86.8 546.8 84
PURAVANKARA 123.95 535 77
SOBHA 132 1060 88

* As of October 16th 2008

Outlook
From the above table we can derive the outlook for these companies is not so good. Over 70% of their market value has been wiped out in less than a year; thus, putting brakes on their expansion plans. They might have to look for alternative source of capital or delay their projects. The global financial crisis and impending US recession have severely affected a large of industries such as IT/ITES and Financial Services. Both these industries were creating huge demand for A-grade commercial properties in Metros and Tier-1 cities. Now, that demand has been reduced by over 50% and it may decrease further if the US goes into deep recession. So the next one year would not bring good news for the firms in the realty sector.

However, the consumers have great opportunities even in this bear market and higher interest rate environment. With the decrease in demand for both commercial and residential properties, prices/rentals have come down. We have already seen a correction in the range of 5-10% across the properties and believe prices may go down further by another 3-5% in the next 2 to 3 months. Also, the prices in the secondary market have fallen more compared to that in the primary market. We believe inflation might cool off by June 2009 which might push the demand for residential properties. Though the long term outlook looks good, the short-term outlook is very bad for the industry. So if you plan to buy a house, either buy now or wait for couple of months but definitely before inflation falls below double digit and banks gradually start rolling off hike in rates.

Sub-prime Crisis: What is it all about?

Sub-prime crisis is the current financial crisis (considered as the worst ever since World War II) characterized by acute credit crunch in the global capital markets. This liquidity crunch is not only because of shortage of funds or higher interest rates but also because of mistrust among banks that have forced banks to stop lending to each other. Banks do not know whether other banks have enough cash and liquidity to survive to pay back the loan; thus, affecting the critical inter-banking operation in the economy. This has affected the liquidity in the market and made highly leveraged banks difficult to operate and survive.

Inter-Banking market operation
Open market operations is a tool used by Fed (RBI’s equivalent in the US) to regulate money supply in the economy. U.S. banks and thrift institutions are obligated by law to maintain certain level of reserves, which is determined by the outstanding assets and liabilities of each depository institution, as well as by the Fed itself, but is typically 10% of the total value of the bank's demand accounts.

For example, assume a particular U.S. depository institution, in the normal course of business, issues a loan. This dispenses money and reduces the bank's reserves. If its reserve level falls below the legally required minimum, it must add to its reserves to remain compliant with the regulation. The bank can borrow the requisite funds from another bank that has a surplus in its account with the Fed. Thus, this operation is an extremely powerful tool not only to regulate liquidity in the economy but also for the survival of these banks.

Now imagine what will happen if banks stop lending to each other. Banks will not be able to match their assets and liabilities by borrowing from banks having surplus. Thus banks that have high liabilities or are highly leveraged (e.g. Lehman, Wachovia and Washington Mutual) will go bust!

Sub-prime home loan
Let me explain what does sub-prime loans mean. Prime home loans market refers to individuals with very good or excellent credit records or ratings and to whom banks lend directly. Sub-prime market refers to individuals, who have poor credit record characterized by unstable income. Thus, banks or other lending institutions would not lend money to such individuals. So, how will such individuals get home loans to fulfill their great American dreams? Here enters- financial institutions (FIs), which have excellent creditworthiness. These FIs take loan from banks at lower interest rates and break these loans into a lot of small home loans and lend them to “sub-prime” lenders at much higher interest rates. Thus, FIs make profits on the spread (difference between the lending and borrowing interest rates) by taking higher risks. This home loan market is called “Sub-prime home loan market”.

How this crisis started?
Many believe that sub-prime crisis is direct fallout of the US credit culture. i.e. borrow as much as possible way beyond the means. In 2008 the average household debt was 130% of the average income and average household owned 12 to 13 credit cards. Mind blowing! Isn’t it? The problem primarily began with the US keeping its interest rates very low for a very long time, thus encouraging Americans to go in for housing loans, or mortgages. Lower interest rates encouraged buyers to take on bigger loans, and thus bigger and better homes. Subprime borrowing was a major contributor to an increase in home ownership rates and the demand for housing. The overall U.S. home ownership rate increased from 64% in 1994 (about where it was since 1980) to a peak in 2004 with an all-time high of 69.2%. This was fostered by federal government to increase ownership among minorities and poor.

With the American economy doing well at that time and housing prices soaring on the back of huge demand for real estate and bigger and better homes, financial institutions saw a great opportunity in the mortgage market. In their zeal to make a quick buck, these institutions relaxed the strict regulatory procedures before extending housing loans to people with unstable jobs and poor credit records. Few controls were put in place to handle the situation in case the housing bubble' burst.

The crisis began with the bursting of the United States housing bubble. A slowing US economy, high interest rates, unrealistic real estate prices, high inflation and rising oil tags together led to a fall in stock markets, growth stagnation, job losses, lack of consumer spending, a virtual halt to new jobs, and foreclosures and defaults. The sub-prime loans were given by FIs at floating rates. With rising interest rates in the US, EMIs for these individuals also started increasing (what we see today in Indian market) and sub-prime homeowners began to default as they could no longer afford to pay their EMIs. A deluge of such defaults inundated these institutions and banks, wiping out their net worth. Their mortgage-backed securities were almost worthless as real estate prices crashed.

The moment it was found out that these institutions had failed to manage the risk, panic spread. Investors realized that they could hardly put any value on the securities that these institutions were selling. This caused many a Wall Street pillar to crumble. As defaults kept rising, these institutions could not service their loans that they had taken from banks. So they turned to other financial firms to help them out, but after a while these firms too stopped extending credit realizing that the collateral backing this credit would soon lose value in the falling real estate market.

Why Investment Banks like Lehman Brothers went bust?
Earlier I talked about how FIs like Investment Banks made profits on the spread (difference between the lending and borrowing interest rates) by taking high risks on the money borrowed. This provided huge incentive to these FIs to borrow and lend as much as possible creating huge “leverage” on the books. During the time of housing boom, this was considered as Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) portfolios typically received high credit ratings with minimal defaults. Since Investment Banks do not have the same capital reserve requirement as Depository Banks, they borrowed and lent amounts exceeding 30 to 50 times their net worth i.e. their leverage on the books were between 30 to 50 compared to depository banks’ leverage of less than 15.

Now, housing market started declining by the end of 2005 and went bust in 2007. This along with increasing delinquencies and foreclosures by worried customers led to the decline of housing prices and in turn the value of MBS. Investors became concerned and in some cases demanded their money bank, resulting in margin calls (immediate need to sell the MBS portfolios at fire-sale prices) to pay them. At such high leverage (between 30 and 50), many FIs suffered huge losses, bankruptcy and merger with other banks. With this, MBS portfolios became extremely risky and hence “untouchable” and banks stopped buying or trading them. Their values plummeted further and all those institutions who have bought them suffered huge losses and created panic and acute liquidity concern in the market across the globe. Lehman Brothers had a leverage of 31 and hence went bust because it didn’t have enough cash to service margin calls by its creditors.

Effect on the economy
This severe liquidity crunch led to several negative effects on the economy. This ripple effect was seen not only in the US but also in the European Union because all these rich and big banks in the US and Europe invested heavily in these Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) during the boom time. Banks stopped or became extremely reluctant to lend money to companies which have to either delay or stop their investment plans.

This has led to increase in unemployment and drop in the consumption. The financial crisis as we know caused a panic in the market and stock market declined heavily. Most of the US people have their investments either in real estate or stocks. As both these investment tools suffered heavy losses, average household value/income decreased sharply causing panic among citizens. In the coming years we might see major world economies such as US and Europe in recession.

Why India market fell?
Once investments by the FIs in the US turned bad, more money had to be invested back, to maintain that fixed proportion i.e. to match assets and liabilities on their books. In order to invest more money in the US, money had to come in from somewhere. To make up their losses in the sub-prime market in the US, they went out to sell their investments in emerging markets like India where their investments have been doing well.

So they started selling their investments in India and other markets around the world to maintain enough liquidity in the US economy and for their own operation. Since the amount of selling in the market was much higher than the amount of buying, the Sensex began to tumble. Additionally, crude prices were in the range of $120-150 which caused inflation to rise in double digit forcing banks to raise their interest rates. Thus, higher rates seriously affected real estate, automobile and banking firms’ operations and their stock crashed. Moreover, there were some rumors that even Indians banks had some exposure to these risky MBS and hence, banking stocks were among the worst hits. The flight of capital from the Indian markets also led to a fall in the value of the rupee against the US dollar. The stock market will continue to tumble as long as there is huge selling pressure from these FIs.

Bail-out
This crisis is now spreading from sub-prime to prime mortgages, home equity loans, to commercial real estate, to unsecured consumer credit (credit cards, student loans, auto loans), to leveraged loans that financed reckless debt-laden leveraged buy outs, to municipal bonds, to industrial and commercial loans, to corporate bonds, to the derivative markets whose risk are indeterminate and underlying assets value is hundreds of trillions of dollars.

This is a total systematic failure which needed an urgent and high level attention across the world. Thus, we saw a $3 Trillion bail-out from central banks in the US and EU. Let’s keep our fingers crossed and see what future holds for us!

Problems with the real estate firms

If you are a developer, I am sure you are a worried man! Things are not at all rosy for the industry, which was a darling of foreign and domestic investors for the last few years. So what went wrong with the sector? why has it started loosing it shine? I believe there are many a factors hurting the developers and all at the same time. I will discuss few of them here.

1. Liquidity crunch
Real estate firms have depended hugely on foreign investors to raise capital to fund their expansion plans. Now the crumbling financial sector has forced investors to either pull out of the ventures or stop lending to firms (Rumor is Lehman Brothers has over $1 Billion of investments in Indian real estate sector!!). This has put a brake on the expansion plan of the developers. Additionally, RBI has strict lending conditions for Indian banks for real estate sector. With the stock market showing signs of southward movement across the global, developers plan to raise capital by IPO or issuing additional stocks has now no taker.

2. High interest rates
RBI's aggressive policy to control inflation over the last six months or so has led to higher interest rates in the market. Interest rates on home loans have shot up from 7.5% in 2005 to 14% in mid-2008. Residential properties buyers are shying away from borrowing loans because EMI has shot by tremendously. Thus, demand for residential properties has come down significantly. This is hurting developers who are left with lot of invesntory and stuck with ongoing projects. Moreover, borrowing rates for developers have shot up as well. Indian banks are putting a yield spread of over 400bp on real estate firms' bonds.

3. Global slowdown
There is a constant fear that US and EU might slip into recession due to the ongoing financial crisis. This will seriously hurt India's flagship Outsourcing industry. Given the fact that IT/ITES firms consume around 75% of all commercial properties in India, any slowdown in this industry will seriously hurt developers. Real estate firms have lauanched numerous projects (some eof them are under ccoinstruction).

All these will have a spiral effect on Indian economy. Global slowdown and higher interests mean lower growth for IT industry, exports sector, automobile industry, banking system etc. This may lead to lesser hiring in the coming months or years or layoffs to cut costs. All these will lead to negative sentiment in the market and among consumers; thus, lowering the demand for properties or in general on most of goods and services. I believe demand for properties in FY'09 would be 30-40% lower than that of in FY'08.

Bangalore Real Estate Sector

Office sector
Demand in 2008 (1st half) was 7million sq ft compared to 6.6 million sq ft in the same period last year. I have divided Bangalore commercial areas in to three different zone:

1. Central Business District (CBD)
It includes areas near MG Road, Vittal Mallaya Road, Residency Road and Richmond Road. CBD remains the most attractive and suitable micro-markets for new companies entering Bangalore. The central locations offer ease of accessibility and visibility for these new companies and allow established companies to retain brand equity by being in the heart of the city. There is less supply of office space.

2. Non-CBD areas
It includes Indira nagar, Old Madras Road, Airport Road, CV Raman nagar, Inner ring road, Koramangala. The Non CBD area is being observed as the most preferred location for setting up office for high end engineering companies for setting up R&D centers/labs as well as high end support functions. High levels of absorption activity continued to be witnessed even in the Non CBD areas of the city where many corporates chose to relocate/expand due to availability of quality options offering adequate infrastructure and lower rental values compared to CBD. However, land bank is limited in these regions, which might put upward pressure on the real estate in near future.

3. Suburban and peripheral areas
This includes Whitefield, Outer ring road, Electronic city, Bannerghatta road and North Bangalore. The Suburban micro market is another zone that has witnessed high level of space intake by corporate over the year. Scarcity of space in the Non CBD area is furthering the case for location of corporate in the micro markets. The Peripheral areas remain preferred by the corporate for building their campus style facilities. Consequently these locations have witnessed frenzied construction activity from both developers and also individuals possessing large land banks.

Whitefield is now gaining favor as a viable micro market due to decongestion of the airport road, completion of the Marathahalli flyoverand availability of mid to low end housing infrastructure. The area between Marathalli and Sarjapur on the outer ring road has a fair amount of STP, SEZ and grade-A office supply. The excess supply along with low occupancy has put downward pressure on the prices.

With development of BIA and coming up of Peripheral Ring Road (PPR), properties prices in north Bangalore look to go up in the near future. PPR will connect Tumkur road, Magadi road, Mysore road, Bellary road, Old Madras road, Hosur road and Kanakapura road. This region has seen interests from leading IT firms, property developers for residential areas and hospitality sectors to set up star hotels.

Residential Properties
There has been a noticeable demand for prime residential properties and developers are targeting residential areas in the outskirts of Bangalore such as Whitefield, Sarjapur road, Banerghatta Road and Kanakpura Road. Demand is also high for leased apartments in prime areas of central Bangalore by company executives, due to limited supply there is upward pressure on rentals.

New developments are shifting away from the central Bangalore due to close proximity to IT and ITES areas and availability of land for lifestyle projects. Nearly six mega townships promoted by reputed developers are on the anvil in Bangalore. The proposed mega townships will have thousands of housing units and will be a mix of apartments, row houses and villas. Moreover the townships will include educational, commercial, retail and medical facilities.

Capital values for apartments in prime residential areas of Bangalore are in between INR 3000-4000 / Sq. Ft while rental values are in the range of INR 25-30/sq ft. p.m. Absorption rates for prime and quality residential apartments is very high thus demand is exceeding the supply in the areas of Outer ring road, Whitefield and Airport road. There is scarcity of luxury apartments thus in last one year capita; values in suburbs have increased around 35-50% due to high demand. Yield on Residential property in Bangalore is ranging between 6-7%.

Outlook
To check the trend in the residential properties find out from the local authorities on the trend in stamp duty and registration fees.
Improved connectivity between Bangalore and Mysore has led to gradual development of residential properties in and around Bidadi (southwest of Bangalore)
Upcoming DLF townships
NICE corridor
Upcoming BMIC (Bangalore-Mysore Infrastructure Corridor) project
Planned theme parks and resort in Bidadi

Capitalization Rate

Capitalization Rate is a ratio used to estimate the value of income producing properties. Investors, lenders and appraisers use the cap rate to estimate the purchase price for different types of income producing properties. Hence, it is decided by buyers and NOT sellers. Theoretically, Cap rate is the larger return expected by buyers when investing in high risk income properties. The Cap rate may vary in different areas of a city for many reasons such as desirability of location, level of crime and general condition of an area. Few things to note about Cap Rate:

• It defines the percentage number used to determine the current value of a property based on estimated future operating income i.e.
Cap Rate = Annual Cash Flow / Value of property

• Capitalization rates are an indirect measure of how fast an investment will pay for itself in net cash flows; each year, the percentage amount of the cap rate will be repaid
i.e. Payback period = 100% / Cap Rate

• In real estate appraisal in the U.S., a stylized measure of cash flow is often used, called net operating income. It is essentially the same as net cash flow, except that debt service and income taxes are not included while a reserve for replacements is included

• One advantage of capitalization rate valuation is that it is separate from a "market-comparables" approach to an appraisal (which only compares what other similar properties have sold for based on a comparison of physical characteristics). Given the inefficiency of real estate markets, multiple approaches are generally preferred when valuing a real estate asset

• Cap rate could be determined based on an appraisal and/or the cap rates of similar properties that have sold recently i.e. by taking another property that sold recently, determining its rental income, divide the income by the sold price to get the cap rate

Thus, if cap rate in a given property increases, the value for that particular property reduces and vice versa.

Affordability

The affordability index, although at a reasonable 40% (EMI/net monthly disposable income), has risen about 50% over the past two years, suggesting a price run-up faster than income growth. The affordability is also affected by mortgage rates, which has risen by 400bp during the same period. Lending institutions managed to limit the EMI increase to a certain extent by adjusting the loan tenure, thereby controlling the affordability as well. Currently, the domestic real estate market has an affordability levels (Property costs / Annual Income) of 4.5 to 5.0x compared to global level of 3.5x.

Profitability analysis of properties - Developers perspective

Residential properties
From an IRR (Internal Rate of return) perspective, the residential segment is the highest return earner. This is possible due to the unique way in which the payment for residential properties is structured, where the buyer pays some upfront money and the balance by way of installments, which allows the builder to block less capital in the project. IRRs for residential projects range between 30% and 35%.

Commercial projects
The return from commercial property is always lower compared with the residential project due to the following reasons.
• There is no cash inflow until the property is completely developed and in a handover stage
• No outright sale of the property occurs; the developer must contend with only lease rentals

As a result, the developer must invest far greater capital of his own before he sees any cash inflow, and due to lease rentals, his payback period increases, in turn reducing his returns from the project compared with the residential project.